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Write for me ouwb capstone project research on impact of technology in education for money al gore an inconvenient truth presentation software kuro Tata good afternoon and thank you very much read Matheson and Matthew for inviting me to participate in this topic I'm dealing with here is about divestment of fossil fuel from fossil fuel companies and because this is probably the most inspired and practical and powerful idea that anyone's yet come up with about trying to really knock back co2 emissions and this was an idea that started to develop a couple of years ago by 350.org in the States and led by Bill McKibben and and so it's about trying to do right but doing well as a result i want to just state the obvious that we have to purge fossil fuels from our economies for reasons of climate social and economic reasons as well we don't yet have sufficient alternative to fossil fuels at scale or complete economic viability but the faster we invest in those alternatives the faster we will get them so what we need to do is to keep using fossil fuels for a while yet and but we have to drive big change on that switch now it's really important to consider two parts to this that are very closely allied it's about first of all being responsible consumers as we continue to use fossil fuels so it's about for example minimizing the use with a very fuel efficient car or taking public transport and the like crucially as consumers we can also support those companies that might be helping on this so if you given that we still need to buy petrol or diesel it would be better to focus our purchase of that on one the only one of those companies in New Zealand that has and it's a very modest approach to both energy efficiency but also to investing in some bio fuel alternatives which is dead energy and if we do that we'd be better off economic it's a way of keeping their feet to the fire whilst we still have to use fossil fuels but the other part which I'll now focus on for the rest of the presentation is about being responsible investors and so if we divest from fossil fuel companies and we are sending them a very powerful message we are also starving them of capital which hopefully helps them change their ways and their strategies but at the same time we might want to also be investors in z energy so not just be customers but trying to encourage them through investment so you can go along to the AGM as a shareholder and help keep their feet to the fire for example and we'll be better off economically as a result now I'm going to draw here on on wonderful work from carbon tracker which is a uk-based organization that has been driving the analysis of this and particularly around this concept of unburnable carbon and this the bigger frame there is of their most recent report it's a simple concept which is that there are so much oil gas and coal reserves already on the balance sheets of companies producing those fossil fuels and their stock market price reflects those very large reserves there's only one problem all those reserves can't be burnt if they do we fry and therefore the current valuation of those companies is completely unrealistic this is a big shock waiting to happen in stock markets and so that's where the thrust for divestment comes along this is their work and the four thermometers on the left-hand side are for a fifty percent probability of keeping the temperature down to 1.5 or two or 2.5 and and the other four and eighty percent probability as you'll see the red bar there is the temperature and and then on the same thermometer the little bit of gray on top is how much more carbon could be burnt if we were going to keep the temperature there so call that the carbon budget that we have to play with as you see if we were to do 1.5 which is probably unrealistic with well and way to past two it's a tiny bit of carbon and even if we go out to three which is from an ecosystem point of view as a dangerous place to be there's not a lot of carbon to burn there before you get to three however we want to have a real shot at this not a 50-percent shot and therefore will look it's best to focus on the right-hand side well we've blown past 1.5 already so forget that but again come back to three that's not a great deal of carbon left to that we can burn in this that long-term future 2050 all the way out to 2100 now let's go back to fifty percent and the green bubble there is how much fossil few can be built a burnt and then the purple is for two different for 1.5 and then the purples to the gray is 2.5 and three is the orange circle so they're all quite tightly gripped grouped and what the next circle out is the existing reserves on the bank proven reserves exploitable reserves on the balance sheet of fossil fuel companies and it's way more than twice that carbon budget and the blue circle the very big circle is where we expect their reserves to be in decades to come and I'm going to step you through some of the economics as to why if we don't change anything that's where we're going so we need to think about that longer term blue which is the reserves they're going to end up with and that we want to be somewhere round about hopefully the the purple circle in there all the grey one but that's only fifty percent if we go on to eighty percent and you see that those that carbon budget shrinks right back and is an even smaller of the reserves now and the reserves in the future now this is why on current models those reserves will keep accumulating um a lot of money goes into fossil fuel companies there's about 1.2 seven trillion dollars of US debt and about four trillion dollars of equity the companies then produce about a billion a trillion dollars of profits each year that's the 927 billion and and only a little bit about of that comes back to the investors and 126 billion dollars in dividends and 27 billion dollars in interest payments almost all the rest of that profit they make they recycle into capital expenditure 674 billion to develop more reserves so that that's the mad roller coaster that we're on and as I say those profits spur more production and very little of that actually comes back to the investors just to put a little bit of perspective around that fossil fuel impact and where it sits in a global stock market context if you look at the market value of all the fossil fuel companies in the world they're only in total add up to about seven to eight percent of the value of all the stock market shares in the world and and carbon track has been keeps its eye on the two hundred largest fossil fuel companies 100 coal hundred oil and gas and those 200 have a market value of about four trillion dollars and they're carrying about 1.5 billion dollars a trillion dollars of debt analysis by hsbc which is a global bank they are not just a high street bank like here but an investment bank as well suggest that if the value of those companies was downward adjusted to reflect and how little of their reserves could be burnt if we're to meet any of those temperature targets and the value of those companies would fall by between forty and sixty percent so in other words if you're sitting on shares in those companies you are sitting on a very risky share some investors would say well we'll just stay here until we can see the exit signs and then we're out of here but we know what happens in stock markets is very much a herd instinct once everybody starts heading for the exits there is a complete collapse and nobody gets out so that's not a strategy and so that's on the share side and but again when you substantially disrupt the economics of this then it means that those companies then can't pay their interest bills and therefore they would their debt would be downgraded by people like Standard & Poor's so that's the sort of economic and investment impact we're juggling with now just to show you what's been happening with the investment patterns of these companies and I've worked out this chart which is not quite as complicated as it looks Red's bad and greens good so that's essentially what it amounts to and what I've got is three major stock market indexes from msci Morgan Stanley Capital International one is energy shares one is all shares and then the bottom one is called ESG its environment social governance and that's one of the sustainability frameworks it's not the most rigorous but it's one of the most widely used then across the top we've got a 10-year return and five three two and one and we're a box is green it means that those shares have outperformed the rest so if we look back 10 years that was a great spike in energy prices and particularly in two thousand six and seven before the global financial crisis and indeed those energy shares outperformed all shares and the ones that had a sustainability focus the other two indices but the global financial crisis changed an awful lot and technology's changed an awful lot so as much as you right like or not like fracking fracking in the US has created a huge gasp lat which has destroyed the value of gas companies and and it's displaced a lot of coal for example in u.s. power stations and therefore forced down the price of coal globally so in the last five years these fossil fuel companies their investments have performed very badly so that's why they're in red and that's where you see they have underperformed or shares or the sustainability shares and the one that I like best is of course little bottom line that's the ESG those are sustainability companies and and you can see how the returns particularly this last year have been pretty spectacular msci a few weeks ago did a very interesting piece of analysis to try to replicate in their indices the work of the global track of stuff and it's hard to see there this is the wonderful point is that there is a blue line and a red line but they basically track each other since 2008 and and the blue line is world stocks minus fossil fuels and the red is world stocks including fossil fuels and you see they almost perfectly track and when you look at them in aggregate however when you look at them in rather more detail the non-fossil fuel group of stocks outperformed those with fossil fuels by one point two percent so in other words you would have been a smart investment manager if you had no fossil fuels in your investment portfolio over the last five years so yes this is a moral issue yes this is a science and climate and everything else issue and i feel i'm passionate about all that and but the plane economics of this and is what the most immoral unscientific and socially just person in the world should be able to respond to as well now bringing this to in new zealand context and the best work in New Zealand's been done by I WWF New Zealand and they've produced two reports so far the first one is to look at how much subsidies the government gives to fossil fuels and that's the headlines down the right-hand side that's just oil and gas and you see that over the last four or five years that's ramped up considerably most of that spend by the government is doing seismic work and in our oceans to try to encourage multinationals to come here and explore for oil and gas that's the bulk of that money that governments spent there is also some various tax write-offs to the benefit of the oil and gas companies and that's not a lot of money but it's the government's small effort to try to swing the argument back the other way towards oil and gas but think of this from a major international companies point of view and exploring for deep offshore oil and gas here is incredibly difficult it is right on the outer edge of existing technology and and also fraught with difficulties so deepwater horizon in the Gulf of Mexico was an exploration well that went horribly wrong and abouts took about six thousand ships to clean it up and to relief drill wells drill rigs so if we had a serious accident offshore where would we get the two relief drill rigs from and where would we get six thousand ships to clean up the mess and it's out in the ocean so the mess would get away from us more than due to the Gulf of Mexico so these companies are not stupid they're prepared to play a little in this game go along with the government but when they're sitting on so much oil reserves elsewhere in the world why would they want to take and this big investment gamble in New Zealand the second report that they've just done is on our new zealand superannuation fund and acc now you might be surprised that ACC is one of our largest investors the reason is that it looks after a lot of people with very long term health and disability issues and therefore it relies on its investment income for to look after those people long-term so it's a very major invest is a very good investor and so as you can see the superannuation fund that's that's that there has about six and a half percent of its shares in fossil fuels which is mirrors the global market and ACC is a little bit heavier on on fossil fuel shares but equities are only part of their in total investment portfolio and they've got land they've got a non stock market listed staff they've got bonds they've got commodities no they invest in property you name it so fossil fuels is only a very small part of their investment portfolio the response of both organisations so far to this work from WWF has been a bit disingenuous the superannuation fund has said look sorry this is my interpretation of their words I think it's a fair interpretation and we are the professional investors we know what we're doing we are signed up to all these sustainability related watch dogs which indeed they are and so we will do the right thing there's been quite a patronizing response it begs a number of questions not the least of which is although they're signed up for those organizations and those protocol how active are they in being at the forefront of those organizations to really put on you know drive on on those issues however the pressure is building elsewhere so and taking the lead from 350 in the US and 350.org NZ and is also pushing hard on fossil free new zealand as is generation zero generation zeros has had a 14 city in town tour of new zealand around this issue very very focused on incredibly practical solutions and things we can do to move away from fossil fuels and so and it's wonderful that the Anglican Church starting here in the Oakland diocese and we hope that this will and spread through the other diocese in the country and then on to General Synod next year and can really make a stand on this too because the in church isn't investor to pay clergy no part of Matthew's pension at the moment is in fossil fuels and not well what will eventually be your pension and so and the Anglican Church and I'm not rushing it and the Anglican Church is a moderate-sized investor in New Zealand terms and therefore it's right there's we as Anglicans and fill at least start to try and get our house in order and and it's one of my favorite quotes of all time here we go you'll have no future if you don't make one for yourself thanks very much indeed do my research topics in public administration pdf State University of New York at Oswego.