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Kkr capstone portfolio order corporate value of enterprise risk management the next step in business management wiley classless recent essays on british film afternoon don't give Tom another round of applause that was a really excellent talk well done tom that's really good okay good 1981 John Michael Osborn more famously known as Ozzy Osbourne goes to CBS Records to sign a recording contract he decided who's gonna bring two doves to release at the end of the deal as a peace offering to the executives instead he drunkenly lets one go and bites the head off the other proof a year later in Des Moines Iowa a 17-year old fan takes an unconscious bat throws it up on stage Ozzy picks the critter up and bites its head off to know Ozzy does not have rabies the reason I'm telling you this is that metal heavy metal the type of music that Ozzy helped popularize is filled with all sorts of extremes and so they say the path the hell is paved by good intentions you know maybe the question is how do we get here so brief musical timeline 1930s and 40s swing music dominates the landscape 1956 Elvis makes his debut a bit of a game changer right there 1960 the Beatles 1962 the Rolling Stones 1964 the whom 1966 Jimi Hendrix Experience 1968 Eureka Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath led by frontman Ozzy Osbourne enter the stage as the first heavy metal bands since then there's been a tremendous growth of the heavy metal genre itself in terms of the enormous number of subgenres I forward to name a contemporary list we'd have black metal Christian metal death dark metal doom metal it goes one extreme metal folk metal yes folk metal industrial metal core power progressive speed stoner symphonic thrash and of course just plain old heavy metal so you know you can imagine though that with all these different subgenres of music that whenever people get together for a concert you know whether they be tens of people were tens of thousands of people they're gonna want to dance right it's music this is what we as human beings do when we listen to music but if you've never been to a metal show you may be surprised by how people dance at these events and so I guess I should give some kind of warning about what you're about to see please do not try this at home I guess some people know what they're about to say come on right yeah so this is called mocchi alright let me tell you a short story so um a couple years ago a couple years ago I took a date to her first metal show yeah I know what's wrong with that you don't need to tell me take a date to her first metal show and normally I would be at the very front of the audience all the way over there cuz I want the full body contact experience that's what I'm there to metal show for this time things were different obviously and so instead we stayed off on the side and had a view of the audience somewhat similar to what you're seeing here and it just so happened that at about that time in my academic career I was learning in physics about collective behavior and emergent phenomenon and from this view outside the mosh pit which I'd never had before in my life I'm looking down into the crowd completely distracted from what's happening on stage and so this idea this observation stuck with me for a couple years now when I got to grad school at Cornell in the physics program there I started working collaboratively with a couple of people and basically what we did was we took this initial observation and we started downloading YouTube videos we wrote some custom software to track and quantify the motion of people in these crowds and we started analyzing them as a physicist would and one of the things that we found was that when you look at the statistics of how people move in a mosh pit it's the same type of motion that you see from molecules of air in the gas around us so the way that these molecules are bouncing around every which way is the same way people are bouncing around in those mosh pits yeah right and so it's just again you know you see this kind of quantitative relationship the immediate instinct is to say haha let's write down some equations and let's see what happens let's see if we can understand what's going on and so Newton's second law is a good place to start this is the famous equation maybe you know it already it's force equals mass times acceleration for people you need to write Newton's second law with some slight changes but let's see this is my one equation this lad I'm allowed to do that right so we've got Newton's second law for people force of propulsion that is the force that I generate to move forward force of repulsion that's what happens when two people collide they bounce off each other force of flocking now this is interesting this is the tendency for people to follow other people around them okay that's important and then the force of noise that's what happens when you're looking at your cellphone and not really paying attention to you know where you're walking or if you've had a few too many to drink noise randomness we took this these equations we stuck them into a numerical simulation and let it run this is an example of what we saw in our simulations you can imagine this as the view from above the crowd looking down the black dots are the people who are moshing the white dots are the people in the crowd who don't want to the red arrows those are the forces or the directions that people are moving in and the size of the red arrows is the magnitude of the force that's acting on the individuals and so it turns out that when we run the simulations and we analyze what's going on we again see the same statistics that we saw in the YouTube videos and so physically it turns out that there's some kind of mathematical theorem called the central limit theorem bla bla bla that explains what's going on but it turns out there's something else that was very interesting that I want to show you too that was also in the model it's this I mentioned that there was a flocking force that was the tendency for people to follow each other as we increased the flocking force in the model made it more and more significant we saw that these simulations led to groups of people that were running around in a big ol circle like that this they went from this disordered chaotic mosh pit like gasps and they turned into some kind of ordered vortex come on watch it look at this thing it's like yeah that's not real that's totally an artifact right like there's no way in heck that this could be real our model is totally bunk that's overly simple fun yeah you guys get one going with this right let me show you the video this is Killswitch Engage they're pretty good vein I really like them actually and they're just about to start this I had to mute the audio for this because it's not all ages appropriate but take a look what they're doing here people are coming out and lo and behold right like maybe that's a one-time thing right maybe like you know we just got lucky and that's like the only time that's ever no come on right here's another compilation video I'm actually in this crowd here all the way in the back this is Rock am ring in Germany I went with a couple of friends for a long weekend it was a good time about a hundred thousand people went to that event this is the largest circle pit I've ever seen ever huge and there's an important point I want to make here and that's that in the modeling and the mathematical modeling of the crowd we didn't insert circle bits we didn't insert the statistics of gases that those are the things that emerge naturally okay these are predictions that the model makes and when we see that the model is able to quantitatively capture what we've seen the mosh pits and then accurately predict other types of qualitative behaviors that hints to us that we've captured some sort of essential core underlying concepts and the way that we as people move collectively now full disclosure we didn't invent these equations they actually were written down maybe two decades ago and have been used in many other contexts I'm showing you some other examples where they've been applied successfully and I think one of the really interesting food bits of food for thought on this one is that the equations of collective motion apply equally as well for birds for fish and for bacteria and that these physical laws remain the same and so when we think of ourselves we have some kind of rich interior existence we have thoughts we have emotions we have desires dreams wishes and we think that trying to describe that in physics language would be too daunting of a task well maybe for individuals behaviorally that's too complex but for groups of people well we're right on the plane with the bacteria it's interesting in terms of applications there's actually a very nice way that this can actually benefit society and large and think about this if you go to a major sporting event the Olympics or something if you go to a presidential inauguration if you go to a massive concert there are people who are being paid who specifically their job is to manage security and there they're up there they're thinking what happens if there's a fire what happens if there's an earthquake what happens if there's a explosion what happens if something goes wrong how do we protect people in the panic that ensues and so I would suggest that if you want to understand how people are going to behave in those very extreme social circumstances you'd want to go and study people and other very socially extreme circumstances now it's clearly not ethical to start a riot for the sake of science but a mosh pit I would say is a pretty good set of substitute I mentioned that this was a collaborative project this guy Matt bierbaum he did all the simulation work so I really got a you know hats off for him he's just been fantastic to work with he actually took the simulation and poured it over to an online version and post it on his website run at dot me so other new top-level domains and you can actually go online right now and make your own mosh pit simulation you can put all the same knobs and dials that we did in our research and you can see these things reproduced right there on your own computer we were advised by two really cool people Jim Seth done etai Cohen jim basically looked like this throughout the duration of the project I only have positive things to say about each eye and his dressing style and I think I just want to close I want to say thank you to the bands that helped inspire this research I wanna thank you guys for showing up to this and I want to say thanks the TEDx Yale team we've been doing a fantastic job putting all this together today let's give them a round of applause thank you the capstone group morgan stanley Marist Brothers.