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Do my the secret world capstone capstone partners llc london for money how to write an essay on social learning theory hey good morning everybody this is first warren storm team chief meteorologist Brad bed which is October fourth 2016 this is the morning update or vlog on what's going on with hurricane Matthew let's get right to the details we'll dive right in here you can see the circulation made landfall in the tiburon peninsula here of haiti this morning around seven am on the I filled in you would expect that because it's interacting with some pretty big mountains and some land but one thing I do note this morning is it looks like it may wobble back to the northwest which is kind of key because I was wondering how long we were going to keep this north north east movement going on that's something to keep an eye on here's another view and I put the forecast plot on here because this was the earlier advisory the center somewhere in here and it looks like it is going to match it pretty well with the forecast here by two o'clock this afternoon so it is likely going to weaken just a little bit I wouldn't say this is going to weaken dramatically the I certainly did fill in and if I turn off the the plots there and I'll put it on the infrared satellite you can kind of see that the I had filled filled in quite a bit and you would expect that doesn't mean it's weakening dramatically in fact let me look at the forecast mom track we'll look at the models here in a second but let me show you real quickly the hurricane hunters because they are actually out in the storm right now and I want to give you a good idea on what what's going on out there with the storm with the hurricane hunters they just made a pass and so the pressure is up a little bit but to be honest you 944 millibars is still incredibly low that is still a pretty strong storm but there are some signs it's weakening unfortunately did not weaken enough to really help out poor Haiti because haydee just got absolutely clobbered from this storm so let's get back to those models I briefly showed you this was the morning runs of the models and you can see if you look at where the storm is right now it's running a little bit east of this the cluster which isn't all that bad it's roughly right in there and it looks like it is going to make that churn and impact eastern Cuba later today now they're tightly clustered all the way through the Bahamas and then we get up here towards florida by friday this is a real close call the cluster is right in here this is right where the track is and we'll have an update on the track coming up at the top of the hour eleven o'clock to be precise I'm not expecting much of a change when you get up into North Carolina here's a little bit of concern for us the cluster or the mean is now making landfall somewhere in here so you can see there's still some offshore but there's a whole bunch on shore now this is the most i've seen from the consensus models of a landfall now in South Carolina North Carolina and right now that area looks to be the Grand Strand up to the Wilmington area this is the area biggest concern and if it makes this approach you're going to see huge storm surge especially right around area between myrtle beach and then going out towards Southport the Oak Island area this area in particular if this would be a landfall there would be huge storm surge here so again as we mentioned yesterday it is now time to start preparing on the Carolina coast you need to start putting your hurricane plan into action get everything ready to go board up sandbag whatever you need to do you can always pull back and this isn't full go yet but this is starting to get this stuff roll and get that hurricane preparedness kit going and everything as far as the forecast track this was the advisory this morning you can see the track on Saturday has it offshore of Savannah and then out near the other banks 2 a.m. sunday I think if we're going to see a change in the track today it's probably going to be a little bit more like this so that's why I think this area in particular and again this starts putting Charlotte now more in play that was something we started to see yesterday we started to see the chance of rain moving in the chances for rain for us are now increasing quite a bit i'm going to show you the european model just to show you how close of a call this is going to be for Charlotte European model is pretty dead-on with this storm so far this is Saturday night 8pm and notice the sharp cutoff in the rainfall really heavy rain here and here's Charlotte they mean you go from nothing to something in a hurry so a 25 mile per hour shift in the track or 25 mile per hour distance excuse me shift in the track brings heavy rain into the Charlotte but also a 25-mile shift this way takes the rain out here so this is why this is such a close call still in one I don't anticipate a ton of rain here we could be on the edge of heavy rain and I think for sure we're going to see heavy rain out in Stanley Richmond and Anson counties on the good news with this system is going to be moving quickly so it's not going to be sitting over us for a long time you can see it on Saturday night will go into Sunday morning let me back up this is Sunday afternoon the storm is long gone so it isn't like it's going to sit over us in silk us with heavy rain for days this is going to be 12 hours and out now as far as winds it's still hard to say I think in the Charlotte area we're still looking at some gusts potentially up to 35 miles an hour the main steering currents haven't changed that much in the atmosphere the little trough that was in the Gulf of Mexico has split a little piece went there and a little piece went up there that's going away and it's becoming less of an influence now we're getting into this Ridge how much is this Ridge going to build back to the west and is it going to keep building to cause that curve to the northwest that's what's going to start driving Matthew in the short term long term here comes the trough out west this is going to be the trough that's eventually going to kick it off to the Northeast so now you're in a battle between this Ridge which is off the east coast short-term steering mechanism and in the long term steering mechanism how long does this hang on and how long until this starts in points and that's what's going to determine this S curve and there's going to be an S curve in the track you see that curb so basically an s-curve you draw an s it's going to be like this is that S curve going to be really abrupt like this or is it going to be a little bit slower like this those are the questions we still have and why there's still some uncertainty but here's the deal this is going to be a powerful hurricane likely a category two or three as its approaching the southeast coast that means high impact dangerous storm surge damaging winds flooding rains huge waves maybe even tornadoes on the east side depending on the track all those threats are on table for that reason even with the uncertainty it's now time on the South and North Carolina coast to start putting your plan together go ahead get the plan together where are you going to go get your property prepared for a hurricane it's the time to do it we have until Saturday again the timeframe remember just to back this up the time frame is going to be Saturday for the Carolina coast so you have today Wednesday Thursday and Friday and even a little bit of Saturday morning depending on where you are so that gives you a good three and a half four days depending on location to prepare that's plenty of time to get ready for this storm i'll have another update and of course i will post that track the minute it goes out right before 11am do my capstone logistics york pa phone number Mercy College (New York), Dobbs Ferry.