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Do my copthorne hotel cameron highlands dinner scholarly journal articles on anorexia nervosa for money vhdl based thesis example ´╗┐her apt to decline by 20 they would have been by natural trajectory and Neal it doesn't look according to this poll that people have much faith in that it's going to get any better what do you see the trajectory well I think here people actually turn out to be better economists than economists because the consensus view if you go back to 08 09 was that if you hit the economy with a big monetary stimulus zero interest rates quantitative easing and then a big stimulus on the fiscal side with a ten percent of GDP deficit there would be a v-shaped recovery and the US would bounce back like it did after most recessions post-1945 but people recognized that this isn't an ordinary recession and the real problem is the dragon consumer spending of the great debt that households accumulated over the last 10 or 15 years and I think that debt makes it easy to see that there won't be a great bounce at any point soon it's a very slow process paying down that debt and it restrains Americans from going out going out to the shopping malls and that after all was the the main driver of growth in the glory years before the crash its consumption there's a bit of a arianna a national sort of funk isn't there to Neal's point well I think what's happening is that there is a sense of a bit of Groundhog Day feeling that every Friday the first Friday of each month we'll get these jobs numbers and really nothing is fundamentally changing and the most depressing thing is really what was in ronson skeins book Paul Volcker quoting larry summers saying that politicians when it comes to reform just want to be caught trying and you saw that in your interview with John Boehner his laminated proof of how he's trying to create jobs you see the price and in front of crumbling bridges that have been crumbling ever since he's been in the White House but suddenly were getting closer to 2012 so he wants to be seemed to be trying to create infrastructure jobs but it's all a show and the American people sent see that there is no real effort or will to create jobs because there are many ideas out there but how it could be done but it's not happening let me just show you man i want you to weigh in on this show you some numbers about who the American people sort of blame and hold responsible for this basically in October the president had a 15-point advantage over congressional brigands on the question of who the public trust to handle jobs and a month later a new ABC Washington Post poll has them tied at forty percent which is a big drop for the present in terms of pure politics what does this mean well that's what the wire the president's in trouble on this it's even if there is a glimmer of hope in some statistical basis for job creation the American public gets to make the decision about whether or not we're recovery and until the American public's income actually changes which it has not changed in 10 years is not kept pace and has not kept pace with expenses they do not believe the country's on the right track and as that number goes for their further month-to-month the president's numbers going to drop unless the economy really changes in the public really feels it the problem is is there's been no politician on the left or the right of Republican or Democrat that is laid out of vision that the country believes they can see what the economy will look like in five years or ten years the country does not believe there's been a politician that said here's where we're going and here's how we're going to get there until they do that the country is in this great funk and great dissatisfaction so one of those end points is obviously what the super committee is going to come up you heard me on speaker boehner about that way if you like about how and do you believe they're gonna come up with an agreement by the deadline just before Thanksgiving George problem is by next Sunday they have to have a plan if they're going to get it scored by the congressional budget office before the 23rd the president needs this committee to fail because he's already decided to run against what he calls the Republican Congress while he was lecturing in constitutional law he missed that part of the article one that says there's a Senate also and the Democrats control that and as Boehner said they're holding up a lot of legislation if he's going to run against a do-nothing Congress it has to do nothing therefore there's they can go for a big deal which is unlikely they can say we got one point two trillion which is what we're required to get which is 120 billion over ten years which is trivial or they can let the so-called sequester happen counting on the fact that Congress is going to save now come to think about it we don't want to do that those are the automatic the automatic cuts have to come from defense but defense defined broadly to include the great blob of the Department of Homeland security this seems like a potentially huge miscalculation by the president because as your poll shows the blame is beginning to shift towards him for the underperformance in the employment market and I think this will be another negative from the point of view of us financial markets if they don't come up with a deal and if there's even discussion of going down the sequester route and I think the president gets hit hardest if the economy is still in the tank 12 months from now almost every social science model that exists right now just this bracelet let me just look around at the world whoever is in power is getting hit I mean look at what's happening in Greece with Bob Andrea resigning look at what's happening in Spain where the social is candid for prime minister is overwhelmingly going to lose to the conservative prosperity candle for primates it doesn't matter where you're coming from if you're in charge you're being blamed for what how is that economic crisis i mean the mess we've seen in Europe over the past week going to affect Americans here at home pretty directly actually because the situation in Europe is now the double dip and that's been confirmed by the new head of the European Central Bank who's talking about another recession and the US needs the the eurozone indeed the European Union generally to be growing well because if American consumers aren't out there shopping exports are one of the few areas that the u.s. can hope to get growth is off and that is something that the administration has been hoping for so a ewer recession is really bad news for the and I also think it has a tremendous effect on the American psyche because I think that we're Americans are today as they feel like they're the victims of a lot of uncontrollable global forces in the world and they don't feel anybody is out there sort of in front sayin to say here's how we're gonna do this here's I'm in charge and even President Obama in his sort of speak I think reinforces the ideas I can't really do anything about this Republicans are at fault or this is going on internationally I can't do this as opposed to saying listen I got a plan this is what we're gonna do and this is how we're gonna go forward so as the country sees all this going around the world it's just another thing of lately who's in charge you enterprise risk management cv order Queens College.

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