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Do my capstone realty login do my capstone development solutions intersections inc com this presentation is about prediction markets an intriguing way to do something you may have thought impossible predict the future i'm using a japanese presentation style called Pekka chuka it allows me to display only 20 slides for 20 seconds each this means i only have 6 minutes and 40 seconds teach you all about prediction markets so let's get started I'm Jared Hyman president of info serve we're an online research firm famous for bringing innovative technologies and methodologies to clients over the last 11 years we've been in business I've honestly never been more excited about a new research tool did I am about online prediction markets by the end of this presentation I think you'll understand why whenever I talk with a live audience about prediction markets I start with a question what would you do if you could predict the future I always get the same kind of answers things like I'd buy a winning lottery ticket or I'd go to Vegas and make a killing we all seem to understand intuitively the having knowledge about tomorrow today can somehow make us money everyone wants more money so our inability to predict the future isn't due to lack of motivation I believe it's due to two things the plague every human being limited knowledge and cognitive biases there are many variables that influence future events and one person can only track so many of them plus we have many cognitive biases that further handicap us but there's a solution to this dilemma the wisdom of crowds a crowd of people can have more knowledge of the variables that influence future events than any one individual plus many of the cognitive biases that handicap us as individuals are canceled out within groups for example for every person in the group whose overly optimistic there's another pessimist in the book the wisdom of crowds the author provides many examples of when large groups of people have proven smarter than individuals when it comes to solving problems fostering innovation coming to wise decisions and notably predicting the future the trick is you need a way of aggregating the intelligence of the group while leaving behind its ignorance one common mechanism for aggregating the wisdom of crowd is running a survey which is essentially what happens when a contestant uses their ask the audience lifeline on Who Wants to Be a Millionaire did you know that lifeline provides the correct answer 93 the time not bad but if I had a million dollars in the line I prefer something with a hundred percent accuracy when I present to a live audience I like to host my own version of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire but replacing the ask the audience lifeline with a host of prediction market lifeline essentially audience members are allowed to bet on what they think is the correct answer to the question rather than just enter it in a survey this method always produces the correct answer so why is that well in our prediction market the participants have real skin in the game since they're betting their own money also unlike survey respondents they can self-select for participation depending on their expertise and apply weight to their decision depending on how confident they are it these are the fundamental things that make prediction markets so effective the prediction markets are great for answering trivia questions there are other applications as well sports betting sites are essentially prediction markets for predicting sports outcomes a group of researchers found that online sports betting sites actually outperform about ninety nine point five percent of individual experts when it comes to predicting football game outcomes the Hollywood Stock Exchange is an online prediction market for predicting box office performance of new movie releases the correlation between hsx predictions and actual opening weekend receipts was calculated at 0.93 according to an academic study the hsx also predicts ninety-two percent of Oscar winners correctly year after year the Iowa electronic market is basically a betting site focused exclusively on political election outcomes even a hundred days before an election the IEM predicts the winning candidate about 75% of the time political polls get it right just slightly more than fifty percent at the time that far out and the so-called experts on CNN do even worse about four years ago Google set up an internal prediction market to harness the wisdom of their employees it asked questions like when will Google open an office in Russia or how many gmail subscribers will there be by 2010 Bo Cowgill project manager for prediction markets at Google has written numerous papers about its amazing predictive accuracy my company set up a prediction market called the info serve concept exchange or ice designed to predict the success of new autók packages logos advertisements or anything else traditionally measured with a concept test survey we found it to be amazingly predictive of new concept success more so than focus group surveys and other research tools there are many business advantages of using prediction markets for concept testing including accuracy cost savings speed respondent engagement and reduce risk of respondent misrepresentation I don't have time to explain all of these things in 20 seconds but if you'd like to learn more about how prediction markets achieve them I'm glad to speak with you offline just let me know okay so by now you're probably wondering how prediction markets work they're all a bit different but I'll explain how they set up ice we start by giving every trader 5,000 virtual ice dollars they can use to buy shares in the new product or marketing concepts they think will perform best in the marketplace they self select for only those markets they think they can win initially shares in every concept have the same starting price with which is equal to the number of concepts in the market / $100 so if we're testing five concepts they each have a starting price of 20 ice dollars their total must always equal a hundred dollars because there's always a one hundred percent chance that one of them will be the winner once trading begins the share prices begin to fluctuate just like in the stock market since the share price is always total to one hundred dollars the market price of any given concept is always the markets estimated probability of that concept being the winner we use what's called an automated market maker to adjust the prices of every concept in real time so they always total hundred dollars by observing how share prices move over time we can make very accurate predictions about the real world success of each concept being tested the higher the price of a given concept goes the better the probability of it being a success this is just like on the stock market where companies predicted to do well in the future tend to have higher share prices okay my six minutes and 40 seconds are nearly up I hope that you enjoyed the presentation it came to learn a little more about prediction markets the wisdom of crowds and predicting the future it's a lot to cover in a short amount of time so if you have questions about anything I've talked about please shoot me an email or give me a call all right that's it thank you for your time do my capstone project methodology and development process The Debbie Friedman School of Sacred Music.

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