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Do my capstone meaning how to write a capstone title for money imeche technical report writing ´╗┐hi my name is Cristian Waldegrave head of research at DK and this is our conventional tanker market update for May 2017 now looking at what happened to mid-size tanker rates in April they came down again to about 13,000 dollars a day for ephraim axes and about 16,000 dollars a day for Suez maxes that's kind of the lowest rate we've seen at this time of year for probably four or five years which is a signal towards that we really are moving into the low point of tanker market cycle so the last time rates were this low back into was back in 2013 then we saw the strengthening market into 2014 2015 I think with hindsight the peak of this last tanker market cycle from a freight perspective was probably late 2015 early 2016 and now we're coming back down into the low part of the cycle and I think we're going to go into probably the bottom as we go into q2 and q3 and really the catalyst of this down cycle has been tanker fleet growth and then also the OPEC production cuts so looking at the tanker fleet growth we've seen about 20 V LCC 20 series maxes and about 24 a from axis deliver through the first four and a bit months of 2017 and we've only seen a couple of ships scrap so really it's been a lot of fleet growth on the tanker side and then on the demand side as I've said those OPEC supply cuts have come in compliance of those cuts has been pretty high between 90 and 100 percent so that's taken a million a bit over a million barrels a day of oil off the market and that's really impacted on tanker demand as well as you go into q2 and q3 like I said usually they're the seasonally it's easily the weakest part of you anyway and we do expect rates to be pretty challenging in q2 and q3 there are some trade factors which I think are looking a bit more positive to offset some of the OPEC supply cuts firstly we are seeing that there's more Atlantic oil moving to the Pacific which is good to ton-mile demand which is the longer voyage distances and we're particularly encouraged by US crude production and US exports we're now seeing some US crude exports going to Europe directly on a frame axis we're also seeing a lot of VL CCS now come into the US Gulf and what we're seeing of a lot of reverse lights ring up to a V LCC so that those ships can go long-haul to places like China in fact there was a period last month when China took more US crude than Canada so that's something that we've not seen before China becoming the largest importer of US crude we're also probably going to see in the next little while some more exports from West Africa the picados pipeline which has been offline for a long time is coming back so that should mean more exports out of Nigeria and we're also seeing an increase in production and export that Olivia again now after some supply disruptions earlier in the year though returns the return of Libya and a bit more Nigerian production should produce more cargo - Afra mechanism suez makers and that should help offset some of the OPEC supply cuts during the middle part of this year but really I think what's having a bigger influence on on race and what will have a bigger impact through the rest of the year is the fleet gross as I've said they've already been a bunch of ships delivered in the first four months but there's a lot more still to come through the course of 2017 so there's about 40 series and actually still on order for the balance of the year and about 50 akram axes we might get a bit of slippage but even so that's a lot of ships to absorb in a short space of time so I think it will continue to put pressure on rate through the rest of 17 the good news is though as we get into 2018 that fleet growth really drops off as the order book falls away and you know from sort of five six percent three growth in the last couple years I think once you get to next year we're talking more like two two and a half percent three growth which is going to help the tanker market quite a bit and then it becomes the question of what what's going to happen on the demand side and what's going to happen with OPEC and our view is that probably through the second half of this year those OPEC supply cuts will really start to have an impact on global oil inventories we haven't seen too much movement at the start of this year but that's probably because there was quite a quite a heavy period of refinery maintenance now that refinery throughput is ramping up as we go into the summer months to meet that demand for gasoline we do think that if OPEC maintains its cuts which we think it will do at its next meeting at the end of May then those oil inventories can come down by as much as 200 million barrels through the second half of the year and that means as we go into 2018 the oil market will be more balanced and as long as oil demand still grows at a decent rate 11.2 1.3 billion barrels today that we think that even as US production comes up there will be a need for more OPEC oil so we think that come 2018 ok probably will increase their production again and we'll still continue to see that Atlantic the Pacific movements as well so that should be a good demand story at a time when the fleet growth is coming off which is why we think again that 2017 will be the trough and 2018 will be a recovering market really setting up for what we think will be a much stronger 2019 once you get to 2019 there's really not a lot of shifts on order we do think as well as increased scope for scrapping you've got a lot of older ships now because it hasn't been much scrapping for two or three years and you've got a lot of those late 90s early 2000 built ships which as you get towards the end of the decade will have to go to their seventeen and a half year intermediate survey and their 20 year for special survey and if those ships also have to put on ballast water treatment systems it might encourage owners to scrap rather than paying that catholics to put the ships through drydock so again we think with increased scrapping it's looking good towards the end of the decade perhaps the only wrinkle now is that we are seeing an increase in tanker ordering you know one of the things that we've said before is it for the market to be strong through 18 19 and 20 we need tanker ordering to remain low we have seen a number of VL CC orders placed this year anywhere between 20 and 30 possibly with some more to come given that some owners have signed some ello eyes but I think that that has to be put into context first of all we haven't really seen it on the a from acts and the serious neck side none of these I think there is a requirement for just replacement of the old ships so I don't think it's going to contribute to massively growth want to get into 19 and 20 of course a lot of that will depend on what's happened in the next 6 to 12 months and whether we continue to see orders but given that you know capital is more scarce these days and shipyard capacity has shrunk a little bit over the last few years we still feel confident that we won't get the kind of over ordering of ships that we saw in the last cycle and that fluke row a woman will remain relatively low going into the next two or three years allowing as I said a fairly strong tanker market and to emerge as we go into 18 and then further into 19 so that's our update on the conventional tanker market and we'll talk to you again next month capstone project for high school for money Richard Gilder Graduate School - American Museum of Natural History.

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