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Capstone turbine car for money capstone student housing management reports icon in siebel open hello and welcome to credit matters TV I'm Ernestine Warner a member of the global market development team here at Standard & Poor's today we'll be talking to Frank Trick senior director on a u.s. abs team Frank is our team leader for the surveillance of US student loans credit card and rental car ABS the focus of today's discussion will be on the recently published research article titled the changing face of student loan ABS recent trends and issuance and reading performance this report can be found on Azzam please global credit portal hi Frank welcome I understand so Frank the article is titled um the changing face of student loans can you elaborate a bit on what that means sure first from an issuance standpoint the student loan EVs sector has changed dramatically over the course of the past couple of years and a lot of it has to do with how government guaranteed student loans are funded since the financial crisis back in 2008 essentially with the dismantling of the felt program in 2010 by the federal government it's pretty much cut off a steady stream of government guaranteed student loans to ABS transactions so essentially any prospective borrowers today looking to get a government guaranteed loan pretty much have one outlet that's pretty much one game in town and that's the Department of Education is Direct Loan Program and unlike loans that were issued by banks under the felt program previously that the REC loans are not securitized secondly from a from a reading transition standpoint there has been a fair amount of rating transition or rating migration in the student loan sector some of that has been inventive and some of that has also been performance driven okay Frank so comparatively speaking we're thus occurence student loan abs issuance stack up against historical volumes that we've seen you know now that the do e is acting as a sole provider of federally backed student loans new issuance of help ABS is pretty much atrophied from where it stood prior to when the direct loan program came into place now while you know overall student lending is growing at a at a rapid pace there are just a select number of issuers that are actually bringing new transactions to market you know with that said most of the transactions that we've actually rated over the past couple of years we have been phelp transactions and essentially where those transactions are coming from are not new origination but essentially refinancings of pre-2008 auction rate phelps securitizations as well as refinancing out collateral felt collateral from the straight a funding program and so year to date if you look at issuance of felt ABS there's been 22 transactions issued by 13 separate issuers that total thirteen point three billion for this year year-to-date so in the private student loan space Sallie Mae remains the the main securitizer of private student loans and this year they've already securitized four transactions totaling 3.2 billion additionally we have some of the state agencies such as New Jersey Vermont Massachusetts and Rhode Island that have also issued some transactions but for a mere four hundred and sixty-six million dollars so when you look at it in aggregate for phelp as well as private issuance it's totaled seventeen billion year to date which compares pretty well to what we had last year 18 billion for the full year of 2011 but when you look at that historically you know you look back to 2005 through 2007 total issuance and student loan ABS was anywhere between sixty to seventy billion dollars on an annual basis so this is really a fraction of what it once was okay thank you say that the issuance has atrophied during the recent years can you give us a sense of the dollar volume of outstanding ABS ratings currently sure I mean right now we maintain ratings on roughly 250 billion worth of student loan abs the vast majority of that is felt student loans roughly two hundred billion thirty nine billion of that is private student loans and 11 billion of that our students backed by a combination of both felt and private student loans okay so can you tell us how those ratings have really stood up through the past few recessionary years sure you know on the phelp side you know historically most of our senior class ratings on felt felt ABS were rated triple-a that changed last year when the u.s. sovereign rating was lowered to double A+ we did lower a number of our senior classes roughly two-thirds of our senior class ratings on Feb ApS to double a-plus as well so we expect that the senior ratings on phelp abs will remain stable and this of course assumes that there's no further rating migration and the u.s. sovereign rating now in the private student loan front we would expect that on especially on pre-2009 vintages we would expect that collateral losses will continue at a high pace however we don't expect there will be large scale rating actions given that we just recently completed a review of most of our private student loan transactions issued by ABS issuers our rating actions following the review on private student loans were more negative than they were neutral as down grades outpaced affirmations by a margin of one point seven to one you know from a rating standpoint senior bond ratings in the private space pretty much run the full gamut of our rating scale those that essentially remained as investment grade pretty much for mid to low investment grades anywhere from say single a the trip will be senior bond ratings that actually are speculative grade pretty much run from BB to any way down to Triple C and then for subordinate private student loan ratings most of those predominantly are speculative grade and most of those are anywhere from BB downwards we also recently reviewed a number of Sally matrons actually transactions issued since 2009 as well as a number of the state agency private transactions with the Sallie Mae transactions most of those had higher credit enhancement levels than Sallie Mae's transactions that the issue prior to 2009 and we pretty much affirmed all those ratings at triple-a on the state agency front on the private student loans pretty much all those ratings were also affirmed most of those ratings were Double A and single a and we also did a review of a number of mixed transactions so they have a combination of phelp as well as private collateral we looked at little number of those transactions and it was a mix of upgrades downgrades as well as affirmations okay so Frank what does the road ahead look like for student loan ABS you know due to the elevated unemployment rate in a backdrop of a challenging economic time we do expect that college students will continue to face a challenging road ahead and as such we continue to maintain a negative outlook on private student loan collateral in our rated ABS trusts you know the other thing that we continue to look at is any potential changes in the bankruptcy law you know if Congress decides to make any changes to the Bankruptcy Code and allow for private student loans to be discharged in a bankruptcy filing this could definitely have an impact on private student loan collateral as a whole and obviously within our rated trusts as well with that being said however we do think that the the presence of co-signers in transactions will help mitigate some of the default frequency associated with any potential bankruptcies because we wouldn't expect that both a borrower and their cosigner would both file for bankruptcy that makes sense Frank thank you very much for coming to share the highlights of your report thank you and thank you for joining us on credit matters TV you you cpabc capstone 1 schedule D'Youville College, Buffalo.