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Capstone scholarship university of south carolina order do my capstone paper terms historical linguistics powerpoint presentation we've come to the end of what has been another choppy weeks in the markets but joining me to discuss next week is LCG head analyst Brenda Kelly now Brenda let's start by talking about Sunday night there's Japanese fourth quarter GDP data coming out now the market is actually expecting a contraction is it not so so what can we expect from Donnie Yen for example well dollar yen is going to be an interesting pair to note it's broken through some key levels Kiwi the 114 level over the last number of days and weeks even given the fact that we've seen a lot of choppiness in equity markets which is driven investors to the safety of the Japanese yen this has obviously been to the detriment of the Nikkei which is fallen at 5 percent this week and 4 percent on the under on the Friday morning as well and so ultimately that the outlook is not that great in terms of the NIC high strength so what I've been looking for at the moment is yes there'll be a contraction and we would expect at this particular point that given where the dollar yen resides that the next level to aim for be 110 and there is actually a long term Head and Shoulders pattern on the dollar yen chart which now that we've seen that neckline broken around 113 50 would suggest that the ultimate completion will be around 100 and 725 and so lots of downside there but you have to be conscious of the fact that we have seen speculation that the Bank of Japan has intervened in the FX market just yesterday we saw a flash spike up through 113 so be conscious of that if you are trading it because any even any speculation that's taking place could very well reverse that the dollar yen direction and of course the possibility of additional negative rates from the Bank of Japan albeit that they were unsuccessful and temporarily unsuccessful the last time is always there and always a possibility we're moving on later into the week we've got what we've actually got a central bank meeting minutes from various central bank's inflation reports we've got some employment figures coming out the UK and over to call obviously of course had just meant from Japan taking a look at the macro calendar next week what else is a has caught your eye well China is back from notes on the week-long holiday and you know nobody can blame China for the we've seen such volatility over the last week or so but we have their trade surplus coming out trade balance coming out and it's going to be a quite an increase in a trade surplus - right 60 3.5 billion US dollars expecting to see export growth maybe pick up a little bit which is help from a very low base last month also import growth given the fact that yuan has depreciated considerably likely to pick up around 4.8% but there will still be questions about the capital flight from China and it'll be very interesting to see whether or not the Shanghai Composite plays catch up with the rest of the equity markets when they do return to the desk but that being said there has been very little sort of action within the yuan over the last week or so but it could be the calm before the storm and it could ultimately feed more volatility into an already volatile market what about Japanese inflation sorry Chinese inflation figures on Thursday well Chinese inflation figures are also certainly one to watch I would say and certainly you know we are expecting to see to pick up around 1.9 percent year-on-year and food price inflation probably going to be the most robust part of that that been said commodity prices are likely to have stabilized because of the yuan and weakness so I don't think it's going to be a major factor unless it actually doesn't meet expectations but the market is penciling in a consensus of 1.9 percent and I would anticipate that that will be how we see the number actually print okay in terms of meeting minutes we've got the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday night and we've also got ECB meeting minutes on a Thursday are we gonna I mean are we expecting much in terms of perhaps language trying to understand about what the policymakers are thinking especially the FOMC I think the FOMC is probably something often out here this time around because we have had Janet Yellen over the last number of days testifying before the congressional committees so we have a lot of data or detailed from her albeit it's kind of a you know a rhetoric you know a lot of rhetoric from the same before her testimony yesterday was the same she said US dollar strength was a signal economic strength and a week all had been mostly negative for the economy but could be good overall but she also said as well that the Fed has and continues and doesn't actually miss read the effect of the US dollar strength on the global economy and we have got the the Treasury market pricing in the possibility of a rate cut so we have seen quite a reversal in the US dollar strength over the last number of weeks but any sort of indication within those minutes that there are some who are pumping to actually maybe hike interest rates maybe not in March but maybe in the summer that could give a little bit of a boost back to those highs nevertheless I do feel that there's very little more information to be gleaned from those minutes I've been more interested in what the ECB have to say Mario Draghi certainly given the data we've seen today Italian GDP on the quarter only rising point one percent expected point three percent overall GDP in the eurozone 0.3 percent growth not great inflation still exceptionally low inflation expectations still at record low levels as well as so the anticipation of more negative deposit rates from the ECB and possibly something a little bit more imaginative in terms of what it can do to stimulate the economy will be what people will be watching out for but he might have to hold hold firm on that until the actual meeting in March and then we'll get our surprise there nevertheless with that in mind the euro is still very much the go-to funding currency and while there's Chopin is and markets we do remain reasonably bullish on the euro particularly against the pound and even against the dollar as well certainly when it comes to the pound I do sense that we have got a little bit further to go on that my levels are as follows if we get above that 7890 level we can more than likely rise towards 79 60 which coincides approximately with the 200 week moving average and then on the euro dollar similar such a situation there if we can manage to keep this momentum going and stay above the 112 60 level then we have got more room to extend higher and we could see a potential move up towards the 114 level okay in terms of any other potential trade ideas or opportunities in the market given the volatility it's going on at the moment you had talking to me recently about dollar cad is that sort of interesting how the dollar card is very interesting to me because of the fact that it is very much correlated what's happening in the oil market as well and we do have some CPI coming out of Canada on later on next we and that is going to be I think you know expected to rise core price point one percent both the actual consumer prices are going to fall by 0.2% in a month so there is still a little bit of room for action from there the central bank there and as it stands I think while we're above that 135 30-ish level there is a good chance that we were boost a little bit higher the dollar versus the card that is and I would imagine that we could actually head towards the 140 120 in the near term if there is a disappointment in the CPI number there from Canada brilliant thank you very much Brenda we'll leave it there that's all for this week's version of the week ahead good luck trading have a lovely weekend and goodbye for now paper presentation topics on new technology order New York Chiropractic College, Seneca Falls.