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Capstone restaurant careers write for me capstone project internship vodafone group plc annual report 2018 toyota hey everybody meteorologist Joe cioffi on this Friday and these were the temperatures just after sunrise this morning as we hit our lows and you can see they were quite chilly in some spots middle to upper 40s across central and eastern Long Island otherwise temperatures were in the 50s the warmer urban centers tended to circle around the low 60s but then once you get away from new york city newark you see the temperatures drop down 50s middle to upper 40s across much of northern and western New Jersey in the Hudson Valley once you go north of 287 and we look in Pennsylvania we had numbers in the mid 40s to around 50 Hazleton got down to 41 but that's because they have elevation and in southeastern Pennsylvania it was mid 50s to low 60s near Philadelphia 40s just away from town and in southern New Jersey it was mostly upper 40s and low 50s so definitely a chilly morning out there as we take a look at where we're going with all this first off I just want to point out with this next cold front that the rain that's forecast here beginning later Sunday and lasting into at least Monday morning the GFS model is pretty generous with rainfall here are showing a large area of the of New York New Jersey back through eastern Pennsylvania getting a 11 inch an inch of rain and some pockets may be up to two inches being that we're in this really dry pattern it leads me to be very skeptical about this we'll look at the nams version and actually the name is even more generous across Central and South Jersey showing a larger area of two inch amounts in a even greater area of one inch plus amounts again I'm thinking to be a little skeptical about this until we see how everything forms out on the models and then as we get closer to some sense of reality and with regards to what's happening it will show you here on the surface map with this weather front them is going to back it up just a little bit this is tropical storm Julia that's sitting off the south eat off the South Carolina coast just meandering around really doesn't do very much it actually moves West and then the low just kind of disappears where you can see the weather front that gets to us it's not a particularly strong front from the standpoint of the air mass behind it the air mass behind it is not really all that cool it's a week high that's building in and there's already low pressure coming into the Great Lakes but this is by Monday morning and we have the front just kind of stalled out on top of us there's a bit of a wave that develops on it so that could be the that's probably the reason why we have additional rainfall being indicated so once that wave goes by at that point we'll see the front move offshore and then it dries out that doesn't really cool down much just a little bit at least the humidity will be reasonable but then the second half of the week as we go to thursday friday and saturday gets very warm as this upper Ridge starts to build off the southeast coast and you'll also have what the GFS I guess picks out as Carl in some form looks like here it would either be a strong depression or a weak tropical storm on this particular model but the European on the other hand is far more developed with a major hurricane sitting yeast of the Bahamas by this would be a a week from today week from Thursday night the European has been insistent on developing this into a major hurricane but i just want to show you that it does turn at north and then northeastward which makes sense given what's going on in the upper layers of the atmosphere on both major models so we'll take a look at that and you can you'll see how the upper air in fact I'm going to just widen this out just a little bit so that you can get a better flavor of it will go to that western that North Atlantic view so you can see the two issues with regards to the models the first issue is when we've been talking about for a light a while now is that hole that's out near 60 west now that hole closes up a trough we lift out in the next day or two and is upper high builds across the Atlantic so that's the reasoning behind this tropical system tracking to the west and European wants to at least create a environment quite favorable for strengthening but when you look at what's happening across the united states north from New York North where you have this westerly flow that sets up here you can see it right there these are all westerly winds aloft and you also have this upper Ridge over here off the southeast coast here's the Atlantic Ridge right there and here's what's left of this is I'm sorry this is a tropical storm or hurricane karl or whatever it is there's a bit of a hole that develops just off the east coast so instead of the whole being at 60 we have the hole in the jet stream a little further to the west and with those westerlies the way they are this is not something that would be favorable for a tropical system to move up the east coast you really need to have you see these upper level winds are like this here across the Northeast okay what you really need to have a threat along the east coast and I'll draw that in blue okay the this this trough would have to be in this fashion like that okay so that the tropical system winds up coming into that trough and being drawn up the East Coast that the up up the East Coast in this setup however with these strong westerlies anything that's out here is when you get deflected eventually north and northeast far enough off shore where it has no impact but this will have some ocean impact in terms of rough seas probably some you know higher than normal tides and perhaps even some rip currents so this is the view right now according to what the models show let's just quickly look at the satellite and you can take a look at how these of tropical systems are doing this mood today you have Julia here and further to the east we're going to get myself out of the way here and movie move the recorder here further east you can see this is the this is tropical storm Carl and it did manage to strengthen in an environment that is not too favorable for strengthening you notice these clouds are moving north and northeast where that's that trough that's at the middle of the east of 60 so that's forecast to close and disappear and then allow this to keep moving further and further west and one quick look at the tropical storm Julia this morning off the South Carolina coast just kind of be entering around most of the thunderstorms are east of the center so it's not a well-developed tropical system and we wouldn't expect this to strengthen any further unless there is some thunderstorms developed near the center you have strong westerly winds aloft that seemed to be preventing that at the moment so that pretty much sizes it up for the next several days and with respect to the tropical systems that we're dealing with have a good friday and a good weekend and we will be updating this of course for you on the website meteorologist Joe cioffi calm SS storm chasers calm for any kind of severe weather that develops who they will be following it there as well also for long island weather don't forget whether long island calm and pretty soon there'll be a new one NYC weather now calm have a great day enterprise risk management human resources for money York College, Jamaica, Queens.