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Capstone partners nw llc do my ashland university softball make course work on divorce online I was in the Public Health Service as a commissioned officer at the time and I remember writing some of these equations down and one of the other men scientists in the Public Health Service said you know that's a model and I was the first time I heard that word what's a model well it's a representation of the Connecticut River and that's interesting and it was at the fighting moment a lot of defining moments I remember him saying that's a model had never heard that word before even though the equations had been around at that point for for maybe 50 60 years Bob Tolman was one of the founders of water quality modeling in the United States and modeling mathematical modeling has provided one of the biggest success stories in pollution control over the past thirty years the story of the Great Lakes the Great Lakes of North America our five large freshwater inland seas on the border between Canada and the USA biggest of all and farthest west is Lake Superior south of superior and entirely within the USA is Lake Michigan water from both Superior and Michigan flows into Lake Huron the flow then runs through the Detroit River into Lake Erie the smallest of the lakes finally it passes over Niagara Falls through Lake Ontario and then out into the st. Lawrence River and the Atlantic the lakes now are very much cleaner than they were in the 50s and 60s and the traditional use for recreation is regaining its popularity lakeside resorts are centers for fishing sailing and other water-based for and the lakes contain freshwater so they're used to provide drinking water for a large part of the North American population much of the political impetus for cleaning up the lakes came from the International Water Quality agreement signed in 1972 by Richard Nixon and Pierre Trudeau in the United States responsibility for monitoring water quality and advising on changes was given to the Environmental Protection Agency and much of the modeling work was carried out at their large lakes research lab in Grosse Ile an island in the Detroit River at the Northwest tip of Lake Erie Bill Richardson is former station chief at the lab I was accepted in the Public Health Service and through the course of my discussions with these fellow students I became aware of you know the tremendous pollution problem that was going on in this country of course we discussed that in classes it was on national news Kennedy had just been elected president he was making quite an issue out of this the state of Michigan was going through turmoil with the pollution problems in the Great Lakes actually the Great Lakes cleanup and whole effort on Water Pollution Control focused on Lake area in the Detroit River and the late fifties early sixties when there were tremendous oil slicks coming down the river from the industries from the auto plants and the steel industry industrial plants like these produce the most obvious forms of pollution this is River Rouge just south of metropolitan Detroit and one of the Centers of heavy industry in the state of Michigan even now some of the waste products from these factories are washed down the River Rouge out into the Detroit River and then into Lake Erie but pollution doesn't come only from industry much of it is a result of ordinary everyday life can start with bacterial pollution which is direct result of human sewage from sewers combined sewer overflows which is a combination of rainfall and sewage and from driven plants sewage also has various kinds of organic material in it that is not of a toxic chemical point of view but of organic waste that can use up oxygen when discharged to a stream or lake and that oxygen then impacts the loss of oxygen impacts the aquatic ecosystem then of the problem of nutrient enrichment from both treatment plants from humans as we obviously we discharge the nitrogen phosphorus in our waste and from agricultural runoff so bacteriological pollution organic material that contributes to lowering of oxygen nutrient enrichment is another area and then finally the toxic chemicals heavy metals zinc mercury copper cadmium which have been around since since the very beginning and the newer chemicals the organic chemicals synthesized by and large since the second world war of which there are hundreds of thousands so in a very broad categories relative major pollution problems some of these newer chemicals are called PCB polychlorinated biphenyls there are nearly 200 different kinds of PCBs and they've been used in many different manufacturing processes the problem that became more evident in the eight 70s 80s is that of toxic substances it was determined that PCBs was a major problem affecting what possible risk for human health was determined that children of mothers who ate a lot of great lakes fish the infant's were displaying certain abnormalities and characteristics that were very disturbing to people so it was determined to actually ban PCBs even before we model it problem with PCBs is that a lot of it was produced since 1929 so it was all out in the environment in inks carbonless paper in present light fixtures industrial oils even though we banned the use and manufacture PCBs in the country is millions and millions of pounds of this were distributed in the environment but despite the apparent size of the problem the environment can often be forgiving Lake Michigan alone contains 5 million million cubic meters of water enough to swamp modest amounts of pollution and the holiday resorts in the north of the lake are 400 kilometers away from the polluting factories of the south but still the pollution has to go somewhere it could decay naturally into harmless substances it could be washed out to sea by the flow of water or it could accumulate and if it does accumulate how much of it will there be next year or in five years or ten years and what will happen if the input of pollution is restricted or if it's stopped altogether the only way to find out is by modeling why Marley what's the options the options are to guess at what the effectiveness of certain control actions are and guessing maybe my guess may be as good as your guess and that's when controversy arises so the to the degree to which a model provides at least some objective assessment of the situation and is credible in the sense that it reproduces observed information then we might agree that yes this kind of technique is a useful way to make assessments of the impacts of various environmental control actions but without a model we'd always be flying blind we'd always be guessing with saying well maybe on the one hand this on the other hand that and then I mean so also sometimes argue why we just go out and measure everything we need to measure and on the basis of the measurements making assessments of what the impacts will be well that's fine up to a certain point most of the time the decisions were asked to make or to extend the environmental controls beyond what we've already observed so the question is always a forecasting question a projection question which we can which we can measure so measurements by themselves will never answer the question of what are the impacts of different kinds of environmental control actions so hence modeling enters the door you capstone feit uts for money Adelphi University, Garden City.