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Capstone course cheap capstone project gadoe live i 75 traffic report florida interstate coming up on market to market as one state makes progress on the fight against avian flu the nation's top egg producing state endures additional outbreaks rail shipments of us crude oil soar and scrutiny increases on tracks carrying the world's most heavily traded commodity and in the Northeast producers tap into tradition hoping for sweet returns on their investment those stories and market analysis with Darin Newsom next funding for market to market is provided by Grinnell mutual you think differently about a customer when you stand in the middle of his dreams we work to make sure you get covered right Grinnell mutual a policy of working together information on finding an agent near you is available at grinnellmutual.com and by Sukup manufacturing company offering a full line of grain drying and storage equipment and steel buildings Sukup manufacturing is on a mission to protect and preserve your crop and the tools that produce it this is the friday May one edition of market to market the weekly journal of rural america hello I'm Mike Pearson the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian flu is putting pressure on the country's top egg-producing state where more than twenty-five percent of the hen population is affected by the virus late Friday Iowa Governor Terry Branstad declared a state of emergency over the avian flu outbreak in the Hawkeye State this proactive approach is aimed at protecting the industry earlier this week in the north-central Iowa County of right a state of emergency was declared even without a confirmed case right is Iowa's top poultry producer with 15 million birds last week a facility in northwest Iowa began destroying more than 3 million hands following the discovery of the h5n2 virus avian flu now impacts one of every four egg-laying birds in Iowa and has pushed losses north of 20 million turkey is an chickens nationwide while deadly to birds there is no evidence h5n2 affects humans government officials in the Upper Midwest have been dealing with another issue moving across the region for decades railroad shipments of crude oil have increased 5000 percent in the last six years to almost half a million trips annually and rules proposed Friday by us and canadian officials would require rail cars carrying the flammable freight be built to higher standards in an attempt to reduce the risk of catastrophic events if adopted the mandate would retire thousands of older tank cars prone to rupture however a 15 month long investigation of a North Dakota derailment revealed a different problem faulty axles on rail cars carrying grain are getting the majority of the blame for a December 2013 derailment in Casselton North Dakota the National Transportation Safety Board issued their detailed report on the incident in which a grain train derailed first and then was struck by an oncoming locomotive carrying volatile crude oil from the Bakken Shale region the NTSB report showed more stringent tests involving old tank car axles might have prevented the collision a letter from federal transportation officials cited ultrasonic tests on secondhand axles may have detected internal faults on the BNSF train the company did conduct a required examination of the axle back in 2010 but the more rigorous test would have revealed the faulty equipment and the axle could have been taken out of service the castleton derailment was less than six months after the deadly explosion in lac-megantic also involving a train carrying Bakken croup subsequent incidents involving the highly volatile cargo pushed officials to look at more arduous inspections tougher rail cars and the make up of crude oil itself also this week in North Dakota lawmakers approve the formation of a state-run rail safety program intended to supplement federal oversight of the oil train traffic the three people to be hired for the pilot program will assist the fewer than a dozen Federal Railroad Administration Employees already handling inspections in the Peace Garden State currently the two existing inspectors split time between Montana and North and South Dakota BNSF Railway has already expanded their footprint in the state to 30 workers who spend all or some of their time inspecting railroad bridges and tracks as the production in the Bakken region has increased so has the rail traffic between 2000 and 2012 train trips across the state have increased 233 percent North Dakota's Public Safety Commission says 75 accidents related to track and equipment problems happened in that same time period causing more than 30 million dollars in damage the economy received mixed reviews this week as major indices moved higher after a rough four days US government figures revealed gross domestic product the broadest measure of economic activity slowed dramatically in the first quarter of 2015 growing at an annual rate of two tenths of one percent the Federal Reserve downgraded its view of the US economy in light of slowing growth softening business investment and declining exports the board gave no indication interest rates will be rising anytime soon according to the conference board consumer confidence fell four tenths of one percent in April to the lowest level in four months driven by a slowdown in hiring and Americans also are experiencing higher gas prices as triple-a reported the average price per gallon bounced up to 255 in April as analysts hope consumers will start to move outside and shake off winners economic Jill one commodity takes its cue from a change of seasons in the Northeast a sweet and storied process gets its start with warmer weather this annual Rite of Spring gives a boost to the nation's perception of the region and a shot in the arm to the local economy Josh Buettner explains our country's earliest sugar makers were firmly rooted in their craft well before Europeans arrived but it was the union of native tradition and colonial technology which laid the groundwork for North America's enduring maple syrup production model nowhere else in the whole world does the sugar maple tree grow naturally and we don't plant it out of every 5 hardwood trees in New England two of them is the sugar maple tree while much of the country turns the page on Old Man Winter states like Maine New York and Vermont typically undergo an early spring freeze-thaw cycle spawning a woodland sucrose infusion with temperatures see-sawing from overnight freeze to 40 or 50 degrees during the day the trees root system gains access to fresh water plants starches are nourished kick-starting a saccharine windfall that lasts an average of six weeks with favorable weather once the sole means to an end metal buckets still hang out in the rural northeast this time of year a reminder that the seeds of this sugar-coated culture were sown in nostalgic soil many producers opted to bring the forest to them by installing intricate networks of vacuum tubing roughly ten taps feed a main line which uses gravity induced suction to expedite sap downhill for refinement tim taft a fourth-generation sugar maker runs 650 lines on 100 acres of sugar bush or forest near huntington vermont and while tubing is a cost-effective way for the family operation to move raw liquid maintaining an infrastructure that can be compromised by weather and wildlife requires constant vigilance so I'm just going to read drive this spout and fix the problem mother Nature has a way of keeping us under control this year we had a really bad snowstorm lost power for five days broke a lot of tree branches took us somewhere around 600 man hours to clean up the branches that we're all on our lines holding our lines down in the snow besides upkeep several intensive procedures overlap in the journey from tree to barrel raw maple sap is approximately ninety-eight percent water but through a kind of sugar house alchemy the balance of sucrose to water is flipped on its head this is a reverse osmosis machine to concentrate our sap from ross app closer to syrup where it would be ready to go into our evaporator boiling off excess water pushes the elixirs sugar content to nearly seventy percent but 40 gallons of sap reduces to just one gallon of syrup syrup last year that we sold was two dollars and sixty cents a pound and that's a pretty that's a pretty fair price every spring timber Sugar's off to transactions in over 20 states and while the sweet stuff flows as far south as some portions of the Heartland the undisputed king of us maple syrup production is Vermont according to usda the Green Mountain State accounted for forty percent of the over three million gallons of the nation's maple syrup in 2014 it's a tens of millions of dollar enterprise it employs an ever-increasing number of people it's attracting all kinds of entrepreneurs it's our fastest growing AG sector in the state of Vermont it is probably the most valuable thing you can do with your land if you've got a good sugar bush to work with farms like Taft milk and maple offer a textbook example of classic Vermont agriculture year-round dairies with seasonal sugaring operations but some producers have abandoned the volatility of dairy to scale up on maple alone despite weather uncertainties and short harvest windows Brandon family maple orchards are seventh generation sugar makers who see larger opportunities for this variety of sweetener I think the future looks really bright I think more people are understanding the benefits of maple it's got a low glycemic index so it breaks down in your body real slowly and which is a lot better than other sugars that type you up so this is as natural as it gets according to the Vermont maple sugar makers Association an industry promotion group antioxidant levels in maple syrup exceed those of raw cabbage tomato and cantaloupe while the sticky substance is vitamin and mineral levels outweigh most comparable sugars maple fights an uphill battle for market share with sugar cane and sugar beets but syrups arch-nemesis could be the offshoot of one of America's largest cash crops you always got to read the label because sometimes it's false advertising yeah and Ramon was not the most welcome person in Vermont that's for sure on average grocers stock more flavor enhanced imposters than genuine maple syrup and the disparity is attributed to price overabundant corn is simply cheaper and easier to produce that's really where our competition is its not New York State it's not mean it's not quebec it's those corn syrups that that people think of as maple syrup maple advocates make their argument on quality not price touting the health benefits of pure product / highly processed food additives but the American maple industry is somewhat accustomed to riding shotgun while Vermont is the domestic leader Canada led by Quebec rules the world in maple production churning out 12 million gallons per year the US has worked with its northern neighbors in recent years to replace a convoluted American maple syrup grading system with a universal standard for both countries according to the Federation of Quebec maple syrup producers the provinces market share has actually dropped over the past decade from 80 to seventy-two percent while the u.s. is portion has increased from sixteen to twenty three percent critique reserve really helps us in Vermont because it really sets the floor for the price of syrup and it has helped to stabilize the price is quite a bit Canada imposes legal quotas on producers and stockpile surpluses in its strategic maple reserve in order to control supply and demand exchange rates offer competitors on both sides of the border advantages for moving product but buyers value quality the big wholesalers will purchase syrup for a little bit more usually if it is Vermont or US vs Canadian but then the the US dollar versus canadian dollar is also another big big deal and this year with the US dollar being stronger it makes it more advantageous for them to go to Canada and buy syrup while several New England producers try their hand at retailing maple products themselves to control income and pricing some of the commodity is repackaged in bulk for worldwide markets sealed in barrels syrup will keep indefinitely giving a little wiggle room to the laws of supply and demand unless the market demand goes up and serve get short they'll start to feel a little bit more for it but if the sweet smell of success doesn't boil over this year America's maple sugar makers will try their luck tapping into revenue next season so now I'm going to drive over that can again for market to market I'm Josh Buettner next the market to market report ideal planting conditions pressured markets this week as producers were operating full throttle in the fields for the week july wheat lost 15 cents while the nearby corn contract moved seven cents lower soybeans rallied in the middle of the week but gave it back declining six cents nearby meal prices fell a dollar forty per ton in the softs cotton improved again with the july contract gaining 27 cents per hundredweight over in the dairy parlor the make last three milk contract moved 35 cents lower in the livestock sector prices were mixed with the june cattle contract surrendering all of last week's gains to settle $2 lower nearby feeders declined 60 cents and the June lean hog contract improved a dollar 80 in the currency markets the euro moved three basis points higher against the US dollar crude oil had a big week with a two dollar gain per barrel comex gold lost fifty cents per ounce and the goldman sachs commodity index gained more than eight points to settle at 443 75 here now to lend us his insight on these and other trends is one of our regular market analysts Darin Newsom Darin welcome back thank you Mike now you're a Kansas boy your wheat country we're watching this wheat market continue to fall apart week after week Darren talked to us about what happened this week and what can we expect for this week coming ahead well wheat as you said we'd continues to go down the condition of the wheat crop also continues to go down there's getting to be growing concern that you know thirty fifty percent of average it was what all we might see when the combines start rolling here in another month month and a half yeah the problem is market doesn't care at this point so we see the July Chicago contract going down we see the Kansas City july contract continuing to make new lows traders aren't going to buy into the death of wheat until it's proven as the trucks go across the scales it's just you know it's just what's happened over time they've tried buying into this thing too often it's so hard to kill we always seems to come back now next week we will see the Kansas wheat quality too or go across it'll be interesting to see what they find I don't think it's going to move the market one bit but it will be interesting to see day to day what type of damage from drought freezed to disease all these things are probably going to run across as they make their way across the state that being said how much downside potential is left in this wheat market well as low as it can go is zero it's going to be hard to push it below that in all honesty it you know it's kind of a wild card I mean it shouldn't be going down right now because we are cutting into the crop we are it's decreasing in size every day every week but again nobody cares nobody is going to buy in there too busy watching other aspects aspects of the market global supply and demand direction of the dollar activity in the other grains other commodities so right now you just can't you can't generate and maintain any buying interest long-term and the wheat hit therefore just keeps going down should producers be making some sales now on the board or in the option pit to capture some of that downfall it's so tough to make sales and wheat because again you're talking about where you thought you might have a decent crop now you're going to have maybe twenty-five thirty percent of it you know so you can't forward contract so you can't lock in you know it can't lock that in you can go out and do futures but all of a sudden you're hedging down and wheat likes to do these these spike moves where it drops down and shoots right back up or whatever the case may be so you could be hedging down here what could be multi-year lows if indeed we do have some sort of crop problem very hard to pull the trigger in here I don't want to say just sit you know and wait and see what happens but you know you're almost going to have to wait to see what you have out in the field before you can make any real marketing decisions right at this point ok now that whole discussion led us really nicely into our Twitter question was sent in to us from Evan in Devils Lake North Dakota and we invite all of you to send in your questions that come up while you're in the cab this week send them into at market to market on Twitter or find us at market market on facebook so Evans question looking at the corn market looking at the wheat market potentially soybeans how low can these markets go below the cost of production until market forces correct well that's an interesting way of phrasing the question because market forces don't correct you know there's an old saying the markets always right how low can they go and the way I would phrase it how low can markets go before investments the investment side of the market gets interested again we haven't seen that and we've driven these what we've driven the grains down a great deal of skill going back to last 23 years so until we find some reason for the investment side of the market to get interested we may not be near the loves it I still think that we are I still think that we've probably put the low end in the corn so it means it's kind of a toss-up weep you know who knows when that low is going to happen but until the investment side gets interested it's hard to say the lows in well let's talk corn 370 old crop 380 roughly new crop you think we're touching lows here and they'll both those markets you know on the on the long-term monthly chart for corn supports at 356 and so the July contracts holding above at the December contracts holding above it but barely if we start to break that then all of a sudden we're going to start targeting last October's lows down in the 330s 340 range you know so we have to find some sort of buying interest coming into these markets if we want to see these technical price supports whole weekly charts contracts both July and December continue to go to new lows as you pointed out in the opening we've got planting progress speeding up and US farmers take no time at all to get a lot of planning done so i think in next month report we're going to see a huge jump in planning progress and that's going to put more pressure on the december contract more pressure on the d smart spread so you know while i think the market corn market in particular should start to stabilize should continue to hold in this area there are enough factors out their fundamental factors that are bearish that could really push the market to new lows despite what some of its long-term signals are indicating so producers just hold off you know I've had conversation too with with customers this week about that you know it we've waited I hate it I hate to make a lot of sales in this area but it could go lower I'm not going to there's no doubt that it could go lower if the mark if the crop turns out to be great deal if the weather is fine all this so you may want to look at doing some sort of price protection in here knowing full well that you know there's still a possibility later in the year say the second and third have a second third and fourth quarters of 2015 markets could be well above where we are at this point but you know the danger is what if we really break this thing down and see another wave of selling hit this market then we really have a problem on our hands in court okay well speaking of another wave of selling let's talk soybeans Thursday Friday yeah a big move to the downside talk to talk to us what's happening in soybean you know soybeans as of Wednesday and even thursday morning at gone tootin contracts has gone to a new high for the week looked you know again on their John their weekly charts on other charts that they were getting ready for a bullish breakout and then as you pointed out huge sell-off reversal on on Thursday continuing that on on Friday erased all of the gains that we'd seen earlier in the week we still have solid demand we still have what looks to be solid fundamentals in the market at least domestically but again it can just it just can't find any buyers and so down it goes and then the weight of what's going on in South America the huge crops there offsetting some of this some of the support from good demand for our supplies so I get no reason to rally seemingly lots of reasons to continue to grind lower so be risk-averse it would seem yeah you know right he was a very tough day particularly in soybeans you know first day of the month you know there was some idea that maybe thursday selling was just some you know some bookkeeping cleaning up some positions to close out April then we'd see what happened on may first didn't happen we didn't see the buyers come back now we have to wait and see if they'll get interested again on you know this way as we get deeper into May all right well let's jump into the livestock markets we saw another sell off again another seesaw sell off here in the cattle market we seem to have found some stability any reason for remove one way or the other you know probably not I mean you're going to see this choppiness I think continue in the live cattle market feeders really seem to take off and run a little bit on friday but the live cattle markets really getting a little bit choppy in here it's an interesting combination that the long-term trend on its monthly chart shows that we put a top end last you know last winter and that we've been coming down since then fundamentally though the market still bullish enough short-term to keep it from collapsing you know we've seen some colic cattle on feed reports that weren't we didn't see the growth we didn't see the expansion that we thought we were going to and then the light they later the most recent cattle on feed did show some expansion so it comes and goes longer-term probably starting to look a little bit more bearish for the for the cattle market now you touched on feeders having a little run up on Friday do you think that will continue into this next week if feeders could they're thin their thinly traded market and so sometimes when you get them on a roll and if corns down which corn could probably come in lower again next week that could give some more support to the feeder cattle market same situation is with the live the long-term trends down but we're still seeing this this secondary bounce in the market so I think that could continue into next week and if nothing else maybe provide some selling opportunities for later in the summer possibly into the fall all right now the interesting market in the livestock sector has been the pork market how much of this week's dollar ad run was due in your opinion to this outbreak continuing outbreak of avian flu you know that's a great question because I've heard that meant I've heard that mentioned a lot and and it well I'll look at the chart and I'll say here's where hogs turned it coincides with the continued expansion of this flu situation so you know is that the fundamental backing for what we're seeing on the charts it very well could be we've seen some commercial buying coming into the hog market in other words the spreads have acted like cash markets trying to firm now we've had a bit of a retracement we've got about thirty three percent retracement going on in the Hogs right now it's going to take something extra it's going to take continued support from the cash side of the market to push it up to that fifty percent retracement but right now you know hogs are trying to push higher they're leaving some air underneath them which is always a little bit dangerous or going up a little far a little fast so if it ever turns there's nothing to come back to so and hogs like to do that I like to turn quickly right now looks like they may want to try to push higher a little bit now watching the cash side of this market how quickly could we anticipate a correction on the cash side are we just looking at market ready hogs is that what's driving it higher you know it could be I wouldn't look for a huge adjustment in the cash market you know we might be a week or two away from that happening and that's if the futures market can sustain the rally that it's on then we'll start to see the the cash market Jesse if this is just a quick pop in the futures market and we run up we get that thirty-three percent retracement run out of gas and pull back down cash market won't have to adjust that much alright well Darren thank you so much for joining us we appreciate your insight oh thanks Mike that wraps up this edition of market to market but Darren and I will continue our discussion and answer some of your questions submitted via our Twitter and Facebook pages in our market plus segment online you'll also find audio podcasts as well as streaming video of our program exclusively at the market to market website and be sure to join us next week when we will finally meet a photographer who is capturing the changing role of women in agriculture until then thanks for watching I'm Mike Pearson have a great week Oh oh my god market to market is a production of Iowa Public Television which is solely responsible for its content funding for market to market is provided by Grinnell mutual you think differently about a customer when you stand in the middle of his dreams we work to make sure you get covered right Grinnell mutual a policy of working together information on finding an agent near you is available at grinnellmutual.com and by Sukup manufacturing company offering a full line of grain drying and storage equipment and steel buildings Sukup manufacturing is on a mission to protect and preserve your crop and the tools that produce it coso enterprise risk management 2016 pdf for money John Jay College of Criminal Justice.