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Capstone college for money kapstone twin falls wildlife of pakistan essays hi everyone its meteorologist Joe Chaffee on this Friday afternoon just wanted to give you a heads up but we have a lot of breaking news tonight so be sure to tune in to fire swan news Long Island FiOS 1 news New Jersey and FiOS 1 news Hudson Valley for the latest on what is going on at the airport shooting in Orlando and also we have breaking news with respect to weather which we're going to get to right now we have winter storm warnings up for eastern Long Island and for coastal New Jersey ok and this is what I think the breakdown is going to be in terms of snowfall as we take a look first off I'm thinking eastern Long Island coastal New Jersey these are the areas that are going to wind up with the most and I've put those in a band of at least four to maybe six inches and these numbers could go higher because weather models have you know all pretty much shifted left during this - during today including the European banan which for some reason did a jog to the east earlier has now also shifted to the left so I think that they're kind of locking in now on the idea I also went a little bit perhaps on the low side only because of the fact that yesterday system tended to underperform a little bit so I just want to kind of have that in the back of my mind so I'm going a little less than what The Weather Service is doing and we'll show you that in a second but you can see for a Suffolk County and in western Nassau County I put in a band of 3 to 4 inches we have winter weather advisories up here we also have winter storm warnings up for southeastern Connecticut and advisories in the areas as you go north and west of there 2 to 3 inches is what I'm thinking for Southwest Connecticut Nassau County and easternmost Queens 3 to 4 inches just west of the Garden State Parkway in New Jersey and then you start to taper that number down as you go north and west and you begin to get closer to Route 78 it's a very very tight gradient in terms of the snowfall because I have New York City and a coating to - and the coating is probably more favorable for the areas closer to the dark line here it could be every bit of a couple of inches around Elizabeth Edison New York city in Manhattan the Bronx and so on in southern Westchester then again those amounts taper down a bit as we go to the north and west so just bear in mind that you know we keep dealing with these shifts in both directions if you want to know specifically you can you know go to the website I'll put the link up again and I've got the map counties outline so you should be able to find out figure out where you are you should if you're gonna you know if you're on a weather site and you're reading weather you know if you're reading weather posts you really need to know your Maps okay so here is I'll just show you a couple of the varying models this is the NAMM model from late this afternoon which you know would kind of suggest a for several inches to six in parts of southern New Jersey and a four to six inch snowfall for Long Island you see how the amounts taper sharply as you go north and west of there but I want to just go back six hours from earlier and this is what the NAMM did this morning okay it gave very little snow except for sub the southern half of New Jersey and for Long Island and Connecticut everywhere else got nothing so is now decidedly shifted to the left and when we look at you know various variations of the NAMM model this is a one of the versions that has a tighter grid to it you can see in the purple in red I mean this is basically six to ten inches along the immediate coast of New Jersey and for central and eastern Long Island and for Central and Eastern Connecticut and much lower amounts as you go north and west and then we have another version of the NAMM you know and and you can see their mats here are a little bit lower but still fairly substantial four to six inches of Jersey coast four to six inches with some eight inch amounts as you go up into eastern Long Island again the amounts taper down as you go north westward I don't know if we have enough of the new GFS yet and we don't so let's see if the surface is out far enough that we can know it's only out till twelve hours so I really can't look at that the European had a pretty wide area of three to six inch snow and even had some six to nine inch snows for eastern Long Island so you know I kind of I don't to say blended them all but you know I'm trying to recognize which way these models are going here in terms of how to adjust the forecast so this is going to start you know let's let's go back let me go just pull the name up again and I can take you at least through the sequence of how this plays out tomorrow so there we go so this is 1:00 a.m. and now we're at 7:00 a.m. on Saturday and by then you have snow almost into central you know south of 195 in New Jersey down into Delaware Maryland the washington d.c Baltimore area you know this is one of the things that you know tips off the northwest shift because you know we're seeing snow now on the on the models into the Washington d.c Baltimore area you know so that kind of increases the probability of the snow getting into Philadelphia and New York which it does on this run and and you can see as we go to one o'clock in the afternoon the really heavy heavy snow is in this dark blue out in the ocean that kind of touches the Jersey Shore and touches a Suffolk County on Long Island and southeastern Connecticut and you get those that darker blue there and it really gets into eastern Long Island during the afternoon Saturday before it starts to pull out Saturday evening and then we see weather conditions you know Long Island may probably snow into tomorrow night and sometimes in these situations it takes a while for the snow to wind down over an Long Island it'll probably quit in Jersey from west to east during the excuse me early evening hours and then move away to the Northeast so what we're going to be looking for from here on in is whether we see a further you know westward jog or are we gonna get a little bit of an eastward jog that'll mean that will it be pulling in you know our snowfall numbers in one direction or the other in case oh thanks general I was waiting for the our gym I hadn't seen you just in case you hadn't seen didn't see it earlier at the beginning of the video this is my snow forecast for Long Island generally you know two to three inches in the West at least three to four central four to six East and maybe going higher for the New Jersey Shore we're looking at four to six this by the way can be extended all the way down to Cape May in Atlantic City three to four inches just west of the Garden State Parkway you go up closer to the turnpike and you're looking at two to three inches and then the amount start to taper down as you get further north you know two inches an inch and then a coating same for the Hudson Valley you know coating up north of Route 84 then you start to get into the 1/2 inches maybe 2 to 3 inches in and around New York City and I have two to three inches for Nassau County and also for southwestern Connecticut we've got two to three then we go to 3 to 4 and then 4 to 6 and of course this time around it tapers down as you go to the northwest so we'll we'll keep you updated I'm gonna take a look at some of the other you know late afternoon information to see how this is going in the in the meantime don't forget latest weather coming up tonight on FiOS 1 news Long Island FiOS 1 news New Jersey and FiOS 1 news Hudson Valley and I will come back on Facebook also a little bit later on so everybody have a safe trip home and have a good evening week 7 capstone project online Utica College.