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Apa format for capstone projects cheap capstone outline format purdue for money u s air force academy qualifications you name it monetary fiscal credit 20 different programs because of that I think that the risk of a near depression has been somewhat reduced I don't think that there is zero probability but we probably uh Naga end up in a venir with depression we learn some of the lessons as Paul said from the Great Depression even from Japan however now the consensus is becoming optimistic again and says that we're going to go from minus six percent growth to positive growth in the second half of the year meaning the recession's going to be over in in june by q4 they estimate that growth is going to be positive two percent the next year more than two percent so back to potential now compared to these new consensus got it wrong in the past my views are much more bearish I would agree that the rate of economic interaction is slowing down if you read the keep on having the free fall of the last two quarters will end up another Great Depression and the policy action reducing that but we're still contracting at a pretty fast rate I see the economy contracting all the way to the end of the year so reaching from minus six minus 2 naught plus 2 and next year the growth rate of the economy is going to be so low 0.5% is opposed to two percent class of the consensus and then employment rate already dizzy is going to be above ten percent in more likely close to eleven percent next year the diva next year is going to feel like a recession even if we are technically out of the recession in the outlook for Europe in Japan what year this year next year is even worse so most advanced economies are going to do even worse than the United States for a number of reasons structural factors in Japan week policy response in the case of the eurozone now the financial problem the financial system I've you are still sitting here many banks are still insolvent I agree you don't want to end up like Japan with zombie banks this bleep Barack we suggest is better than what Sweden did take over the bank's clean them up separate good and bad assets and sell them back in short order to the private sector now on the question of the policy responses will be the ave debate between neil and n pole and i think that when i'm closer to the views of a poll I think there is some grain of truth about what nigga says in the following sense there is no inconsistency between monetary easing and fiscal easing both of them should be stimulating demand in the monetary easing should be leading also to restoration of credit of course in a situation which the prongs of the economic problems of not just a liquidity but also of solvency traditional monetary policy doesn't work you also have to do unconventional stuff and you have to fix the banks and we need the fiscal stimulus because every component of a grid the man is collapsing consumption residential investment capex spending non-residential construction inventories exports the only thing can go up and sustain the economy for the time being is fiscal policy however there are caveats the cavities monetary policy cannot resolve problems of credit first of all secondly fiscal policy is not without cost we need in a short run we're going to add about nine trillion dollars to US public debt if you think about the problem of the economy needs said is the end of an age of leverage is not really there is no deleveraging with all the liabilities of the households of the banks of the corporates and now we decided to socialize these losses and to put them on the back of the balance sheet of the government that's why the public debt is rising when you had that problem you have to convert it into equity that's what you do with corporate restructure to convert some way and secure that into equity that's what you should do with the bank's take the unsecured creditors and convert their claims into equity the same thing you could do with the house also reduce their mortgages and have an upside for the credit in terms of a warrant what we're doing is not that that into equity conversion but we're doing is piling more debt on top of more debt and at some point the back of the sovereign is going to break and when that's going to happen it's going to be a disaster so we need physicals in the short run but we have to worry about the long run to thank you no real there will be time to have there will be a plenty of time to flesh some of this out mr. Soros I think it's fairly obvious by now that we are in a difficult situation there are two features that I think they deserve to be pointed out one is that the financial system as we know it actually collapsed after the bankruptcy of lehman brothers and September 15 the the financial system really ceased to function and had to be put an artificial life support and at the same time the financial shock had a tremendous effect on the real economy and the real economy went into a freefall and that was global and international trade was the one that was actually collapsed more than economic activity it was the worst hit the other feature is that the system collapsed of its own weight and that contradicted the prevailing view the governing view about financial markets namely that they tend towards equilibrium and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces outside shocks and and you have then divergencies from that equilibrium but they occur in a random fashion but basically markets are self-correcting and that paradigm has been proven to be false and so we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system but also with the collapse of a worldview and a collapse like this generally events always outpace people's ability to understand what's happening so the response is always lagging behind the problem and policies that could have worked at one point no longer work at the next so that's the situation that President Obama inherited now in these circumstances he is faced with a double objective two objectives one you have to arrest the collapse arrest and if possible reverse the collapse a second you have to reconstruct the system because it cannot be reconstructed the way it was it can't be restored so this is a different situation and when people compare this with other previous financial crisis they're making a mistake now the interesting thing is that what you need to do in the short term is almost exactly the opposite of what needs to be done in the long term because the obviously the problem was excessive leverage but when you have a color collapse of credit you then have to and there's only one source of credit that is still credible and that's the state the Federal Reserve and the Treasury then you have to actually inject a lot more leverage and cap and money effectively you have to print money as fast as you can expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve increase the national debt and that is in fact what what has been done which is the right thing to do but then you have to do once the this policy is successful you will then have drain the money supply as fast as the credit experience so in the circumstances I would say that policy generally lagged behind events we were behind the curve now that the the free fall is moderating and the space of the collapse has more or less occurred I think we are we have a good hope that policy will in fact catch up with events and I actually hope it will be very interesting what's going to happen in the next ten days away the stress test because that's basically where the policy has been lagging behind in recapitalising the banks and that's where most of the confusion and distress comes from but if the success is is really used to to give a realistic picture of the bank's capstone project title page online Five Towns College, Dix Hills.